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Michael McLeay and Silvana Tenreyro () . The researchers discuss different strategies to circumvent the identification problem and present evidence of a robust Phillips curve in U.S. data. The researchers propose a model consistent with these facts and argue that it accounts for the observed rise in the skill premium with more plausible rates of skill-biased technical change than those required by the canonical model. In addition to working papers, the NBER disseminates affiliates’ latest findings through a range of free periodicals — the NBER Reporter, the NBER Digest, the Bulletin on Retirement and Disability, and the Bulletin on Health — as well as online conference reports, video lectures, and interviews. McLeay, M. and Tenreyro, S. (2019): “Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve”, NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2019, Vol. Search for more articles by this author Silvana Tenreyro. M McLeay, S Tenreyro. Information about this author at RePEc . From 1960 to 1983, the standard deviation of annual growth rates in real GDP in the United States was 2.7%. McLeay, M and S Tenreyro (2019), “Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve”, NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2019, Vol. Sbordone, A. Published: Thomas Drechsel & Silvana Tenreyro, 2017. Welfare losses, measured a one-time asset compensation are 12.5%, 8%, and 7.2% of the present discounted value of earnings for single men, couples, and single women, respectively. … In addition to the conference paper, the research was distributed as NBER Working Paper w25839, which may be a more recent version. Philippon and Gutiérrez develop a simple model to differentiate four prominent explanations: decreasing domestic competition (DDC), increases in the efficient scale of operation (EFS), the rise of intangible assets (INTAN), and globalization (GLOBAL). 34. 199 - 255. Centre For Macroeconomics, London, UK. McLeay, Michael and Tenreyro, Silvana (2020) Optimal inflation and the identification of the Phillips curve. This targeting rule will impart a negative correlation between inflation and the output gap, blurring the identification of the (positively sloped) Phillips curve. Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve Michael McLeay, Silvana Tenreyro. Series: Macroeconomics Annual The thirty-fourth edition of the NBER Macroeconomics Annual features theoretical and empirical studies of issues in contemporary macroeconomics and a keynote address by James Stock, a member of President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers from 2013 to 2014. It embeds the supply side of the economy, and it captures how in the aggregate, when greater pressure is put on the most important factor of production (labor), firms will want to set higher prices. 34th Annual Conference on Macroeconomics 2019 More from NBER In addition to working papers , the NBER disseminates affiliates’ latest findings through a range of free periodicals — the NBER Reporter , the NBER Digest , the Bulletin on Retirement and Disability , and the Bulletin on Health — as well as online conference reports , video lectures , and interviews . Blanchard O. e Summers LH (a cura di), Evolution or Revolution, 143-194, … Debortoli, Galí, and Gambetti evaluate that hypothesis for the recent ZLB episode experienced by the U.S. economy (2009Q1-2015Q4). Michael McLeay † Silvana Tenreyro ‡ June 2019 Abstract Several academics and practitioners have pointed out that inflation follows a seemingly exogenous statistical process, unrelated to the output gap, leading some to argue that the Phillips curve has weakened or disappeared. Comment on ‘Accounting for Factorless Income,’ by Loukas Karabarbounis and Brent Neiman NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2018, 33, pp. 33nd Annual Conference on Macroeconomics 32nd Annual Conference on Macroeconomics 31st Annual Conference on Macroeconomics 30th Annual Conference on Macroeconomics. The zero lower bound (ZLB) irrelevance hypothesis implies that the economy's performance is not affected by a binding ZLB constraint. 33rd Annual Conference on Macroeconomics 32nd Annual Conference on Macroeconomics 31st Annual Conference on Macroeconomics 30th Annual Conference on Macroeconomics. E-Mail: Institutional Affiliation: Bank of England. NBER macroeconomics annual 17, 301-345, 2002. ISSN 0889-3365 Sterk, Vincent and Tenreyro, Silvana (2018) The transmission of monetary policy through redistributions and durable purchases. Search for more articles by this author Abstract; Full Text; PDF; Supplemental Material; Add to favorites; Download Citations; Track Citations; Permissions; Reprints; Share on. Their shorter life expectancy reduced their retirement savings but the increase in out-of-pocket medical expenses increased them by more. Bank of England, London School of Economics, Center for Macroeconomics, and CEPR. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2019. Economics Letters 112 (2), 220-222, 2011. All Rights Reserved. They show why this result need not imply that the Phillips curve does not hold -- on the contrary, their conceptual framework is built under the assumption that the Phillips curve always holds. Powell, J H (2019), “Challenges for Monetary Policy”, Speech delivered at the "Challenges for Monetary Policy" symposium, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, Wyoming. We show why this result need not imply that the Phillips curve does not hold — on the contrary, our conceptual framework is built under the assumption that the Phillips curve always holds. M Koren, S Tenreyro. All Rights Reserved. McLeay, Michael and Tenreyro, Silvana (2020) Optimal inflation and the identification of the Phillips curve. 199 - 255. The researchers highlight that some widely used measures of mark-ups and productivity divergence are prone to measurement error, and therefore provide misleading evidence on aggregate trends. On the Empirical (Ir)Relevance of the Zero Lower Bound Constraint, The Lost Ones: The Opportunities and Outcomes of Non-College Educated Americans Born in the 1960s, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and NBER, University of California, Los Angeles and NBER, Special Deals with Chinese Characteristics, University of California, Berkeley and NBER, Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, University of California, San Diego and NBER, The 2020 Martin Feldstein Lecture: Journey Across a Century of Women, Summer Institute 2020 Methods Lectures: Differential Privacy for Economists, The Bulletin on Retirement and Disability, Productivity, Innovation, and Entrepreneurship, Conference on Econometrics and Mathematical Economics, Conference on Research in Income and Wealth, Improving Health Outcomes for an Aging Population, Measuring the Clinical and Economic Outcomes Associated with Delivery Systems, Retirement and Disability Research Center, The Roybal Center for Behavior Change in Health, Training Program in Aging and Health Economics, Transportation Economics in the 21st Century, From Good to Bad Concentration? Description. The extent to which individual responses to household surveys are protected from discovery by outside parties depends... © 2020 National Bureau of Economic Research. HOME PAGE. citation courtesy of . 36: 2015: Rethinking financial stability . McLeay and Tenreyro explain why this seemingly exogenous process arises, or, in other words, why it is difficult to empirically identify a Phillips curve, a key building block of the policy framework used by central banks. as Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2004. 12. June 2017: … Using a variety of empirical methods, the researchers find little evidence against the irrelevance hypothesis, with their estimates suggesting that the responses of output, inflation and the long-term interest rate were hardly affected by the binding ZLB constraint, possibly as a result of the adoption and fine-tuning of unconventional monetary policies. Revista de Economía Institucional 17 (33), 333-353, 2015. Bank of England. Several academics and practitioners have pointed out that inflation follows a seemingly exogenous statistical process, unrelated to the output gap, leading some to argue that the Phillips curve has weakened or disappeared. They use their model along with case studies for clear superstars (GAFAM) to assess the validity of common proxies for each hypothesis, including measures of concentration, profitability, mark-ups, investment and productivity divergence between laggard and frontier firms. Journal of Monetary Economics. U.S. Industries over the past 30 years. Jaimovich, Rebelo, Wong, and Zhang study the role that increases in the quality of the goods consumed ("trading up") might have played in the rise of the skill premium that occurred in the last four decades. CFM Discussion Paper Series (CFM-DP2018-15). NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH. In addition to working papers, the NBER disseminates affiliates’ latest findings through a range of free periodicals — the NBER Reporter, the NBER Digest, the Bulletin on Retirement and Disability, and the Bulletin on Health — as well as online conference reports, video lectures, and interviews. Publisher: University of Chicago Press Journals Release date: 2020-05-22. Specifically, in our paper the Philli… In addition to the conference paper, the research was distributed as NBER Working Paper w25931, which may be a more recent version. The researchers can reconcile their empirical findings with the predictions of a simple New Keynesian model under the assumption of a shadow interest rate rule. In addition to the conference paper, the research was distributed as NBER Working Paper w25892, which may be a more recent version. D Aikman, AG Haldane, M Hinterschweiger, S Kapadia. Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2019, volume 34, pages 199-255, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Michael McLeay & Silvana Tenreyro, 2018. 02079556018; E-mail: Main Academic Positions Professor, London School of Economics 2012- Associate Professor (Reader), London School of Economics 2008-2012 Assistant Professor (Lecturer), … In this paper we explain why this seemingly exogenous process arises, or, in other words, why it is difficult to empirically identify a Phillips curve, a key building block of the policy framework used by central banks. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 34 (1), 199-255, 2020. Bai, Hsieh, and Song argue that China's extraordinary economic growth comes from these special deals. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 122 (1), 243-287, 2007. 1 McLeay and Tenreyro’s argument: the identification problem The Phillips curve is a supply curve. This PDF is a selection from a published volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research Volume Title: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17 Volume Author/Editor: Mark Gertler and Kenneth Rogoff, editors Volume Publisher: MIT Press Volume ISBN: 0-262-07246-7 Volume URL: Conference Date: April 5-6, 2002 Publication Date: January 2003 Title: Optimal Currency Areas Author: … CFM Discussion Paper Series (CFM-DP2018-27). 61: 2020: El dinero en la economía moderna: una introducción. Explaining the Rising Concentration of U.S. Industries: Superstars, Intangibles, Globalization or Market Power? Their empirical work shows that high-quality goods are more intensive in skilled labor than low-quality goods and that household spending on high-quality goods rises with income. We discuss different strategies to circumvent the identification problem and present evidence of a robust Phillips curve in US data. Michael McLeay & Silvana Tenreyro, 2019. " 34. McLeay and Tenreyro explain why this seemingly exogenous process arises, or, in other words, why it is difficult to empirically identify a Phillips curve, a key building block of the policy framework used by central banks. 199 - 255. … Older Notes and Working Papers. Powell, J. H. (2019): “Challenges for Monetary Policy”, Speech delivered at the "Challenges for Monetary Policy" symposium, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, Wyoming. From 1984 to 2001, the corresponding standard deviation was 1.6%. Michael McLeay Bank of England Threadneedle Street, London EC2R 8AH. Centre For Macroeconomics, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 34 (1). NBER Working Papers and Publications. 708: 2011: Volatility and development. M McLeay, A Radia, R Thomas. Local political leaders do so because they derive personal benefits, either political or monetary, from providing special deals. You may be able to download this chapter for free via the Document Object Identifier. 33rd Annual Conference on Macroeconomics 32nd Annual Conference on Macroeconomics 31st Annual Conference on Macroeconomics 30th Annual Conference on Macroeconomics. "Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. Comment on ‘Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve,’ by Michael McLeay and Silvana Tenreyro NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2019, 34, pp. April 11-12, 2019 Share. 34(1), ... Michael McLeay & Silvana Tenreyro, 2019. " Chapter in NBER book NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2019, volume 34 (2020), Martin S. Eichenbaum, Erik Hurst, and Jonathan A. Parker, editors (p. 199 - 255) Conference held April 11-12, 2019 Published in March 2020 by University of Chicago Press NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2020, 34 (1). We use a standard conceptual framework (Clarida et al.1999; although similar results would obtain in the classic setting of Barro and Gordon 1983) to show why: 1. the empirical disconnect between inflation and slack is exactly what one should expect when monetary policy is set optimally; and 2. the result is perfectly consistent with an underlying stable and positively sloped Phillips curve. 1 See McLeay, M. and Tenreyro, S. (2019), "Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve", NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2019, volume 34 and Tenreyro, S. (2018), “Models in macroeconomics”, speech at the University of Surrey, Guildford. … loading... Silvana Tenreyro ... with Michael McLeay in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2019, volume 34, Martin S. Eichenbaum, Erik Hurst, and Jonathan A. Parker, editors: May 2019: Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve with Michael McLeay: w25892: August 2017: Commodity Booms and Busts in Emerging Economies with … Special Deals with Chinese Characteristics Chong-En Bai, Tsinghua University, Chang-Tai Hsieh, University of Chicago and NBER, Zheng Michael Song, Chinese University of Hong Kong Download Slides Download Paper. ISSN 0889-3365 Monograph. View content coverage periods and institutional full-run subscription rates for the Macroeconomics Annual. This targeting rule will impart a negative correlation between inflation and the output gap, blurring the identification of the (positively sloped) Phillips curve. Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve," NBER Working Papers 25892, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. References listed on IDEAS. McLeay, Michael and Tenreyro, Silvana (2018) Optimal inflation and the identification of the Phillips Curve. Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve. 34th Annual Conference on Macroeconomics 2019. The drop in wages depressed the labor supply of men and increased that of women, especially in married couples. Competition between local governments limits the predatory effects of special deals. White, non-college-educated Americans born in the 1960s face shorter life expectancies, higher medical expenses, and lower wages per unit of human capital compared with those born in the 1940s, and men's wages declined more than women's. National Bureau of Economic Research Macroeconomics Annual The thirty-fourth volume of the NBER Macroeconomics Annual features theoretical and empirical studies of issues in contemporary macroeconomics and a keynote address by James Stock, a member of President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers from 2013 to 2014. E-ISSN: 1537-2642 The NBER Macroeconomics Annual provides a forum for leading economists to participate in important debates in macroeconomics and to report on major developments in macroeconomic analysis and policy. Several academics and practitioners have pointed out that inflation follows a seemingly exogenous statistical process, unrelated to the output gap, leading some to argue that the Phillips curve has weakened or disappeared. 34th Annual Conference on Macroeconomics 2019. They focus on two dimensions of performance that were likely to have experienced the impact of a binding ZLB: (i) the volatility of macro variables and (ii) the economy's response to shocks. After documenting these changes, Borella, De Nardi, and Yang use a life-cycle model of couples and singles to evaluate their effects. manufacturing output growth slowed sharply and PPP-weighted world growth is set to fall from from 3½% in 2018 to 2¾% in 2019. 758: 2002: Further simulation evidence on the performance of the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator. 235–248. Royal Sonesta Hotel, Riverfront Room, 40 Edwin H. Land Blvd., Cambridge, MA. The interpretation of these trends is controversial. Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve, NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2019, volume 34, The 2020 Martin Feldstein Lecture: Journey Across a Century of Women, Summer Institute 2020 Methods Lectures: Differential Privacy for Economists, The Bulletin on Retirement and Disability, Productivity, Innovation, and Entrepreneurship, Conference on Econometrics and Mathematical Economics, Conference on Research in Income and Wealth, Improving Health Outcomes for an Aging Population, Measuring the Clinical and Economic Outcomes Associated with Delivery Systems, Retirement and Disability Research Center, The Roybal Center for Behavior Change in Health, Training Program in Aging and Health Economics, Transportation Economics in the 21st Century, Comment on "Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve". Special Deals with Chinese Characteristics Chong-En Bai, Tsinghua University, Chang-Tai Hsieh, University of Chicago and NBER, Zheng Michael Song, Chinese University of Hong Kong Download Slides Download Paper. The reason is simple: If monetary policy is set with the goal of minimizing welfare losses (measured as the sum of deviations of inflation from its target and output from its potential), subject to a Phillips curve, a central bank will seek to increase inflation when output is below potential. In doing so, they also clarify the confusion about the evolution of labor share in the U.S. and in Europe. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 34 (1), pages 199-255. Lower wages explain 47-58% of these losses, shorter life expectancies 25-34%, and higher medical expenses account for the rest. JMC Santos Silva, S Tenreyro . with Michael McLeay in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2019, volume 34, Martin S. Eichenbaum, Erik Hurst, and Jonathan A ... Commodity Booms and Busts in Emerging Economies with Thomas Drechsel: w23716. "Commodity Booms and Busts in Emerging Economies," Journal of International Economics , . London, WC2A 3PH. loading... Silvana Tenreyro ... with Michael McLeay in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2019, volume 34, Martin S. Eichenbaum, Erik Hurst, and Jonathan A. Parker, editors: May 2019: Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve with Michael McLeay: w25892: August 2017: Commodity Booms and Busts in Emerging Economies with … Welcome to Silvana Tenreyro's Web page Optimal Inflation and the Phillips Curve Joint with Michael McLeay. ISSN 0889-3365 Abel, Will, Tenreyro, Silvana and Thwaites, Gregory (2018) Monopsony in the UK. Special Deals with Chinese Characteristics Chong-En Bai, Tsinghua University, Chang-Tai Hsieh, University of Chicago and NBER, Zheng Michael Song, Chinese University of Hong Kong Download Slides Download Paper. 267–279. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 34 (1). Juan Carlos Berganza, Fructuoso Borrallo, Pedro del Río, Determinants and Implications of Low Global Inflation Rates, International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis, 10.1007/978-3-319-79075-6_10, (183-216), (2018). Since the late 1990's, U.S. industries have become more concentrated and more profitable, while non residential business investment has been weak relative to fundamentals. The reason is simple: if monetary policy is set with the goal of minimizing welfare losses (measured as the sum of deviations of inflation from its target and output from its potential), subject to a Phillips curve, a central bank will seek to increase inflation when output is below potential. Chinese local governments wield their enormous political power and administrative capacity to provide "special deals" for favored private firms. “Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve,” with M. McLeay (2020). Silvana Tenreyro Curriculum Vitae, September 2018 Address: London School of Economics, Department of Economics, 32 Lincoln’s Inn Fields 2.19. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 34 (1). NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH. ... leading some to argue that the Phillips curve has weakened or disappeared. HOME PAGE. In addition to the conference paper, the research was distributed as NBER Working Paper w25820, which may be a more recent version. Tel. Michael McLeay and Silvana Tenreyro; Michael McLeay. 34300 Points . The extent to which individual responses to household surveys are protected from discovery by outside parties depends... © 2020 National Bureau of Economic Research. 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Drechsel & Silvana Tenreyro Borella, de Nardi, and Gambetti evaluate that hypothesis for the Macroeconomics Annual 34 1. Deviation was 1.6 % US data Journals Release date: 2020-05-22 Gregory ( 2018 ) Optimal Inflation and the problem..., 33, pp Phillips curve 1 McLeay and Tenreyro, Silvana Tenreyro and. More articles by this author Silvana Tenreyro ) irrelevance hypothesis implies that the curve! Experienced by the U.S. and in Europe use a life-cycle model of and. Factorless Income, ’ by Loukas Karabarbounis and Brent Neiman NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2020, 34 ( 1,... For favored private firms and Song argue that China 's extraordinary economic growth comes from special!, Center for Macroeconomics, and Gambetti evaluate that hypothesis for the recent ZLB experienced!

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